Poker Tournament Tips: How to Take Control of Coin Flips

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Arved Klöhn Pokerlistings Author
  • Fact Checked by: PokerListings
  • Last updated on: January 9, 2025

Regardless of the overall structure of a poker tournament or the style you play, you’ll be forced to take some coin flips on your path to the title.

With pressure from the rising blinds and players fighting for a finite number of chips, it’s not possible – or rather it’s completely improbable – you’ll make it through any poker tournament without ever being in a coin-flip situation.

So how can you make the most of it?

What is a Poker Coin Flip?

For clarity: Naturally, we’re not talking about the actual act of flipping a coin here (although many poker players have won and lost large amounts of money doing just that).

The poker equivalent of the coin flip is getting it all in against one opponent with your probability of winning approximately 50%.

Classic Coin Flip Examples: 

  • AK vs. JJ
  • AT vs. KQ

Anytime you flip, you’re risking your tournament life (or a portion of your very valuable chips) with a 50% chance at missing.

In case you’re unsure about investment odds and probabilities, those are not good odds. If the odds are poor, any decent investor would tell you simply not to invest. Wait until an opportunity arises in which you have more favorable odds.

This is sound advice and is exactly what you should be doing (for the most part) in cash-game Hold’em.

Unfortunately, in a poker tournament, the increasing blind pressure adds other factors into play. These factors force you to flip simply to stay alive in the tournament.

You’re forced to play the situation, regardless of the actual hands in play.

To sum up: You don’t want to be taking coin flips but there will come a point where taking a flip becomes your best chance at staying alive or making it deep.

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Make Your Opponents Make the Choice

While you can’t choose not to take coin flips, you can choose when to take them.

In the majority of all coin flip situations one player moves all-in and the other player calls.

(Note: there are times when both players have a pocket pair or some other combination of hands that give one player an edge over the other. Since these situations will go both ways (between the pusher and the caller) we’ll exclude those situations from this conversation.)

After removing those situations, the player calling is calling for a 50% shot at taking the pot. But the player pushing actually has a better opportunity at making money. It’s not possible to put an exact number to it but the concept is simply known as fold equity.

Just by being the player to have pushed you have the chance that your opponent will fold. When this happens you win the pot 100% of the time. If the opponent calls, then you’re a 50% shot.

As you can see the caller never has any fold equity while the pusher always does. In other words you want to be the aggressor, the pusher. If you’re never making any moves it’s going to be terribly difficult to force your opponent into making a mistake.

Force your opponents to have to choose to flip with you or fold. If you’re always making that choice as the caller you’re reducing your edge and counting on luck to bail you out.

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When is Your Best Chance Taking a Flip?

If you’re at the point where your best chance at progressing in the tournament is by taking a coin flip, you need to think in terms of this:

  • 30% is not 50%

Basically, you need to avoid calling all-in bets with easily dominated hands. Players will often call with hands such as A 2  looking for a flip knowing this hand is better than even money against K Q  or any other non-paired, non-ace hand.

Example:

Imagine you’re on the cutoff with A 2 and the short-stacked button shoves all-in.
They’ve shown a tendency to push with almost any two cards when their stack is low.
Even so, you suspect their range includes most Ax hands. If you call, you risk being up
against a better ace, leaving you at around 30% equity rather than a true flip.

Unfortunately, matching up with any other hand with an ace in it has you at a little less than 30% to win – same as being up against a pair.

So a hand like this is a very poor choice when hoping for a coin flip. First, you have to get lucky to even be in a coin flip before you can have the chance at winning the flip itself.

This goes for hands such as 3 3  as well. This is not a bad hand, and is ahead of anything other than a higher pair.

But if you’re up against a higher pair you’re in a really tight spot. You need to know the range of hands your opponents will be willing to push or call an all-in with before you can choose your own range.

Example:

You hold 3 3 on the button and face an open shove from the small blind.
They have a moderately large stack and only tend to play strong holdings.
Pushing with small pairs is often reasonable, but against this particular opponent,
you risk running into a bigger pair more often, and that significantly reduces
your equity below a standard coin flip.

In many tournament situations, pocket threes might be a great candidate for a hand to take a flip with.

But if your opponent has a large stack, and is the kind of player only to raise hands with legitimate strength, you’re putting it all on the line on the hope they have a something like A K .

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Make Sure Coin Flips are Actually Coin Flips

The first step in being successful in tournaments is to make sure that the coin flips you take actually are coin flips. If you get it all in with a dominated hand, you’re simply giving your money away.

Bottom line: You’re going to have to take coin flips in tournament poker; it’s up to you to make sure you take them when it’s best for you.

Additional Approaches

When you reach the later stages of a major tournament, the strategic environment often changes. Skilled players look to exploit even small edges, and the dynamic can force you into spots where folding away multiple marginal flips costs too many chips. Understanding when to embrace or avoid these flips is crucial, and modern approaches like equity simulations can refine your decision-making.

In some situations, you may use modeling software or run combinatorial analysis to estimate your exact equity against common ranges. If your calculations show you have fold equity alongside an approximate 50% or better win probability when called, pushing is often the mathematically correct choice. Conversely, if you find yourself consistently at the bottom of your calling range, it’s time to either tighten up or shift gears and become the aggressor.

Refining Equity Calculations and Applying Pressure

Experienced professionals often rely on runouts or solvers to gauge the profitability of certain pushes or calls. By analyzing the frequency with which your opponents fold to aggression, you can fine-tune your ranges to capitalize on fold equity. This approach not only clarifies borderline push/fold decisions but also reduces variance in spots where your opponent is less inclined to call. Remember that in tournament settings, chip accumulation and survival both matter, so adjusting your hand selections based on opponent tendencies and real-time table conditions can be more profitable than rigid adherence to static charts.

Another critical factor is table dynamics. When you identify opponents who are playing too passively, well-timed aggression can yield uncontested pots. In contrast, if you notice certain players are calling more frequently, switch to a range that avoids trash hands that rely solely on luck. By balancing aggression with a clear understanding of your pot equity and your opponents’ ranges, you maximize your ability to navigate flips on your terms rather than theirs.

FAQ

What is a coin flip in poker?

A coin flip is a situation where you and an opponent get all your chips in the middle, and each side has roughly a 50% chance of winning the hand. Examples include A-K versus a mid pocket pair.

Why do poker tournaments force you into coin flips?

Tournaments have rising blinds and finite chips. As play continues, you eventually face moments where calling or pushing with hands that hold around 50% equity is necessary to maintain or grow your stack.

What is fold equity, and how does it influence coin flips?

Fold equity is the additional advantage you gain when your opponent might fold to your bet or shove. If they fold, you take the pot outright without showing down your hand. This extra equity makes shoving more profitable than simply calling in many borderline spots.

How do you ensure a true coin flip when calling all-in?

You should avoid calling all-in with hands likely to be dominated, such as A-2 offsuit against a tight player’s shove range. Instead, focus on hands that genuinely stand around 50% equity or better versus what you believe your opponent might hold.

When should you push with small pocket pairs?

Pushing with small pocket pairs can be beneficial if the opponents’ ranges are wide enough that your pair will either be a true flip or favored against their most common holdings. Against very tight players, small pairs are often at a disadvantage and might not be worth risking all your chips.

Why is aggression so important in coin flip situations?

By taking the initiative and pushing rather than calling, you create fold equity for yourself. This can lead to winning the pot without a showdown, whereas a caller never has that advantage.

Do modern solver-based approaches apply to coin flip scenarios?

Many professionals use solver-based simulations to refine preflop push/fold ranges and ensure they aren’t taking marginal flips unnecessarily. These tools help confirm whether a shove is profitable based on your opponent’s calling ranges, stack sizes, and other tournament-specific factors.

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