Can Being Confident Make You Win at Poker? Probably

How does Mood Affect Poker Success?

As time went by and poker become the national pastime, some folks started taking a closer look at mood and personal feelings and whether or not they were having a direct effect on one’s game and by extension one’s bankroll. I began noticing not so much expert writings on mood and affect but comments; sometimes offhand, sometimes more explicit.

Usually they were from major players, professionals who were quoted saying things like, “Well, I’ve been working harder on being more confident about my game when I sit down.” Or, “I sensed I might do well in this tournament. I’ve been playing pretty good lately and my confidence was high.” Or, “The more confident I am, the better I seem to do.”

I found these remarks intriguing but puzzling. The gambler in me was skeptical. The game has a significant luck factor and, no matter how skilled you are or how good you feel about yourself and your game, you can still get your highly confident butt handed to you on an unlikely river. The psychologist in me had an even stronger reaction. I doubted that being confident (or not) could have a real impact on how well one played poker. It’s a game of decisions, a game of analysis of circumstances based on partial information. How can feelings of self-reliance make any difference to how you think these things through and to what decisions you make?

Example:

Imagine you’re playing a cash game, holding A K on a 8 J 6 flop against a loose-aggressive opponent. You sense that a large continuation bet will represent strength and force a fold from hands that could otherwise improve on later streets. Feeling confident in your read, you fire a pot-sized bet without hesitation. Your opponent quickly folds, and your unwavering demeanor convinces them you had the goods. Whether you truly did or not, your confidence made the play work.

The Confidence Game in Poker

As I continued to play and learn about the game I began to get a growing sense that this confidence thing might be real. These pros didn’t seem to be just blowing steam. They were talking in serious ways about the importance of one’s emotional and motivational state. It still didn’t make sense, though. I could imagine how confidence could work in a game that depended on physical skills.

It seems pretty obvious that if you’re feeling down and doubting your abilities, you’re going to have trouble holding off a rushing lineman or driving hard to the basket or getting a tight spin on your curveball. But making a tough call? Making a big lay-down? Running a bluff? It didn’t feel quite right.

I don’t know if you’ve thought about this stuff but these are the circumstances that rankle scientists. We see patterns in the data – some of them seem to make sense; some don’t. Some of the time the evidence seems very strong but we find ourselves feeling skeptical; some of the time the evidence is weak but we are enthusiastic supporters. As a scientist, I can tell you that often how we feel in these situations depends on whether or not we have an “explanatory mechanism,” some theoretical process that allows us to understand why something is real.

Here’s an example that’ll make my point. We’ve long had good evidence that physical exercise helps cognitive functions as we age. But, no matter how convincing the data, many scientists were skeptical because there wasn’t any obvious explanation. However, we now know that exercise boosts the efficiency of glucose metabolism, especially in brain areas critical for memory. Glucose powers the brain, and when we metabolize it effectively, our brains function more efficiently. Are there more mechanisms that link a sense of confidence and success in poker? Ones with “explanatory” power?

Aggression: Still Rarely Wrong in Poker

Mike Caro is known for many insights into poker and the one that rings true here is this nugget: “Aggression is rarely wrong in poker, and the times when it is wrong it isn’t wrong by much.” High levels of confidence increase aggressiveness, which is why being confident works in physical sports like football or boxing. An uptick in the level of aggressive play is one likely reason why confidence empowers players.

Example:

Consider a tournament spot where you hold Q J on the button against two tight players in the blinds. The flop comes 9 10 4 , giving you an open-ended straight draw. Feeling confident in your reads, you raise over the small blind’s continuation bet. Even if your draw misses, the pressure you apply can prompt folds, bolstering your chip stack and setting a more dominant table image.

Testosterone and Aggressive Play in Poker

Back to Caro’s “Aggression is rarely wrong in poker. And when it is, it isn’t wrong by much.” This line goes right to the core of the game and, not surprisingly, has received a lot of analysis. In terms of standard poker strategy the gloss is straightforward. Aggression works because it can win “immediate” money two ways because you:

1. Force an opponent to fold a better hand or one that might improve to beat you;
2. Win more when you’re best and get called.

Checking and calling only win when you’re best and don’t affect pot size. But there are other reasons why Caro is right, ones that involve “future” money, money that will be won in hands to be played

Poker is Metagame

The elements that underlie this implied revenue are primarily psychological and are best seen not as specific strategic moves in particular hands, but as factors that are part of what Dan Harrington calls the “metagame” – those elements that characterize the game as played over extended periods of time and among a host of different players. The concept of a metagame is important.

The role that aggression plays in the metagame has a lot to do with the hormone testosterone, its impact on our physical and mental selves, the role it plays in self-confidence and the importance of experience. With your indulgence, I need to shift into professor mode for a short lecture. Testosterone is an anabolic steroid derived, as are other steroids, from cholesterol (and you thought that stuff just clogged your arteries). It is produced primarily in the testes in men and, in much smaller quantities, by women in the ovaries.

It has a host of effects on the body including increasing muscle mass, enlarging body parts, stimulating sexual arousal and increasing bone density. It also affects cognitive functions, contributes to mental alertness and, under certain conditions, increases aggression. Many have assumed that there is a direct relationship between testosterone levels and aggressive play in poker. There may be; in fact, there probably is, although I don’t know of any controlled scientific studies. But if a relationship does exist, it is likely complex because we know that hormone levels interact with a host of other factors, one being learning. Here’s a classic study done several years ago – and, yes, it holds a message for poker players.

Science Comes to the Rescue

Scientists selected a young monkey, one low on the dominance hierarchy and with relatively low testosterone levels; let’s call him Max. This poor sod was routinely beaten on by his more aggressive troop mates. But science came to the rescue. The researchers rigged his next encounter by drugging the monkey just above him in the troop’s pecking order. Max won his first fight and replaced the other monkey in the chain of command.

The research team, however, was just getting started. Through a succession of fixed fights (the way some boxers get their shot at a title) they engineered a climb up the monkey version of the corporate ladder. Max prospered. As he climbed, his testosterone levels went up. He gained weight and strength and behaviorally he seemed to show more swagger and confidence. Monkeys who once intimidated him were now cowed. The message was clear. Testosterone levels are not fixed by biology. They are malleable and can be shifted about by experience.

Testosterone Boosters for Poker Players

Indeed, a series of bad beats is, from a psychological perspective, a lot like being on the wrong end of a bunch of rigged fights. Of course, this link with testosterone hasn’t gone unnoticed. Several companies are touting products for poker players that they claim are testosterone boosters.

Gamma Labs, manufacturer of a compound derived from rice bran and pomegranate (called Gamma-O) recently signed an agreement with Harrah’s to be a sponsor of the WSOP. Because this compound is listed as a “nutritional supplement” it falls outside the regulatory umbrella of the FDA. As such, it has not been subjected to rigorous, scientific tests. Paint this old professor skeptical. Caveat emptor. Is there a downside? A small one. Too high a level of testosterone is associated with inappropriate aggression.

This isn’t terrible since, as Caro noted, when aggressiveness is wrong it’s not all that wrong. However, more aggressive players have larger swings and higher variance. No problem with this if your bankroll and psyche can handle it. Finally, a question to ponder: Does the link between testosterone and aggression have anything to do with the gender issue? I suspect it does, but the issue is complex and I’ll have a column on it in the near future.

Final Words

Confidence remains a potent force, but modern poker has evolved. Skilled players increasingly rely on data analysis and solver-based approaches, yet even in a solver-centric environment, maintaining self-assurance can tip the scales in your favor. Whenever you face a close decision, your conviction in how you interpret ranges and board textures can prevent you from making timid folds or missing profitable bluffs.

In high-stakes contests, confidence also fosters more deliberate table presence. Your posture, your verbal demeanor, and your swift execution of bets or raises communicate focus. Opponents notice whether you are on edge or comfortable. In these contexts, unwavering confidence can give you intangible control, nudging others to second-guess their own lines.