How to Win at Poker: It’s About Decisions, Not Results

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Arved Klöhn Pokerlistings Author
  • Fact Checked by: PokerListings
  • Last updated on: January 16, 2025

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The point of view expressed in the title of this piece is, I have always believed, so obviously true that no sensible poker player could doubt it.

However, the other day I reiterated it to a not-quite-awful player sitting on my left.

He looked at me like I had just arrived from some other strange, foreign place – perhaps Planet Matusow – and opined, rather unpleasantly:

“What in the f**king world are you talking about? Poker is about results, poker is about money. That is it. That is all it is.”

What Really Counts in Poker?

This perspective is pretty common among today’s players. You hear comments like, “Well, I haven’t played with her enough to really know but she usually seems to be sitting behind a bunch of chips.”

Or, “Yeah, I know that was a mistake but the only thing that counts is that I won the pot.”

Or, “You may not like the way I play, but I’ve got more chips than you do.”

Well, there are some minor truths buried in remarks like these. And, of course, that original crack from the guy on my left is both quite right and quite wrong.

But, and this is the interesting part, his remark is right in utterly uninteresting ways but wrong in deep and profound ones.

If you don’t appreciate the distinction, you’ll never become a solid player. So, a short exegesis on decision-making versus results.

Poker Money Misses the Point

Every hand in poker is going to confront you with a number of decisions, from initial choices to fold, call or raise, to the wildly complex and gut-wrenching ones that put your entire stack at risk.

In the long run, how you fare will be primarily determined by the decisions that you make.

Yes, of course, we all play for money. Yes, of course, the final results logged in our records (you do keep records, don’t you?) dictate how well we are doing.

And, yes, of course, those who are winning players know this because they have more money than they would have if they weren’t playing poker.

But this focus on results, on money, misses the point.

Cause and Effect in Poker

Let’s take an analogy from science. In the sciences, the search is always to find the cause of an effect, the underlying reason why something happens. More often than we scientists would like we get sidetracked because we think we’ve found the “real” cause and stop searching.

Suppose you keep having headaches. You do a lot of careful experiments and discover that if you take aspirin as soon as the first pains appear the headaches go away.

So, you conclude, not totally wrongly, that aspirin cures headaches. However, you don’t really know why aspirin does this and that is the important question.

If you were to look more deeply you might discover that aspirin has anti-inflammatory effects and anti-inflammatory drugs cure headaches – a fact that would become critical were you to develop an allergic reaction to aspirin.

You could then seek out some other anti-inflammatory and continue to garner the benefits. See the point?

In poker, if you focus too intensely on immediate results, on money won and lost, you will be doing the same thing. And the same kind of unhappy outcomes can result.

New Environments Call for New Tactics

How does that happen? Easy. Two wild, aggressive players sit down at your table and the game takes on a new cast.

You visit another card room where the style of play is different. You move up (or down) in stakes and confront games that have a tempo and structure alien to the one you’re used to.

In each case your results will likely change because the decisions you’re making are no longer optimal.

It’s as though the side effects of aspirin were now getting to you. But if you appreciate the anti-inflammatory factor, life will be fine. Switch to ibuprofen.

In the new game, make different decisions.

Imagine you’ve been at a table where everyone generally plays tight and you’ve grown accustomed to seeing only a few raises per orbit. Suddenly, two hyper-aggressive players join. In a recent hand, you pick up A K in the cutoff, and one of them 3-bets your open raise from the small blind. Previously, you might have decided to slow down and just call to keep the pot smaller, but considering these new opponents’ range and your position, re-raising or even shoving could become the more profitable decision. This shift in approach focuses on your decision-making process, not the short-term outcome.

Short-Term Focus Causes Long-Term Pain in Poker

Here’s a bit of solid advice. Cut back on the amount of emphasis you put on your short-term results.

If you’re typical of most players you’re probably worrying too much about what you’ve lost in recent sessions or being too narcissistic based on how much you’re ahead. Focus, instead, on the decisions you’re making.

If you make the right decisions more often than your opponents and commit fewer errors than they do, in the long run the results will take care of themselves. If you play tournaments this advice is even more useful.

Tournaments have a larger luck factor than cash games. The blinds go up, which puts pressure on everyone to play hands they might prefer to pass on.

The “short-stack” problem forces players to make the all-in move with less-than-wonderful hands. And, of course, much of the game turns on coin-flip situations where if you lose you’re gone.

Consequently, even the very best tournament players can go weeks, months, years without much success.

If you look just at their bottom line, at the amount of money won in some relatively short time frame (and yes, a year is a short time for tournament players), you might begin to think that they’ve lost their edge or haven’t kept up with the game, or something.

Perhaps they have, perhaps not. The answer will almost certainly turn out to be based on their decision-making.

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It’s Not How Much You’re Up or Down

Of course, finding the balance isn’t easy because there is that grain of truth in the comment of the unpleasant gentleman on my left.

Indeed, the money counts; it is the ultimate coin of the realm, the final arbiter of how good a player you are. But if you focus on making the right decisions, you’ll be okay.

At the end of the day, don’t worry too much about what you won or lost. Go over decisions that you made. Replay difficult hands in your head; analyze them.

Look over situations where you might have played differently. Assess the soundness of what you actually did. Honest analysis of decisions made will get you a lot further than basking in the glow of a big win or stewing over a loss.

Advanced Decision-Making

Many high-level players already understand that systematic decision-making is crucial for consistent results. However, rapid changes in poker strategy, both in tournaments and cash games, demand fresh perspectives. As larger fields and deeper stacks become more common, players often incorporate game theory concepts to refine their calculations and remain unpredictable.

Modern strategic developments also place a heavier focus on reading population tendencies. If you know, on average, that a certain player pool rarely 3-bets light from early position, you can make precise adjustments to your opening ranges or 4-bet strategies. Overlooking these evolving trends can lead to suboptimal decisions that hurt your bottom line, especially when swings become more pronounced at higher stakes.

Building a Framework for Continuous Improvement

Some professionals use solvers or future game simulations to maintain a cutting-edge approach, but these tools alone are not enough. The real progress comes from learning how to interpret data and apply the insights to live play. If you become too rigid in solver-based decisions, you risk ignoring shifts in your current game environment. Balancing theoretical solutions with well-timed exploitative plays is often what separates merely competent players from truly great ones.

Consider the importance of position, bet sizing, and balancing your ranges. When you identify a typical trend—maybe certain types of players are overfolding to river shoves—you can skew your approach to include more bluff shoves until they adjust. This ability to track decisions and reactions in real time is essential for maximizing edges that might only appear briefly in a session.

FAQ

Why can focusing on short-term winnings be harmful to my long-term success?

Excessive focus on short-term results can keep you from objectively analyzing your plays. You might stick to a suboptimal approach simply because it paid off in one instance, rather than seeking better long-term strategies.

How should I adjust my decisions when faced with more aggressive players at my table?

Reevaluate your range and tactics. Instead of following a tight or passive strategy, consider more frequent reraises or well-timed shoves. The key is to adapt to their aggression with a plan that maximizes value and punishes overly loose play.

Is there a systematic way to analyze my hands after a session?

Many professionals use tracking software and replay tools. By reviewing each street, exploring different lines, and comparing those lines to what solver-based or well-studied strategies suggest, you learn how to refine your in-game decision-making.

What can I do when I experience a long tournament downswing?

Stay focused on your decision-making process rather than raw results. Reflect on critical tournament spots, review hand histories with fellow professionals or coaches, and keep refining your approach through study and discussion.

How do solver tools or future game simulations fit into this “decisions over results” approach?

They are powerful aids that help you see the theoretical underpinnings of optimal play. However, you must remain flexible. If you rely too heavily on solver outputs without accounting for real-world opponent tendencies, you might miss valuable exploitative opportunities.

Should I pay more attention to my session logs or to my post-session hand analysis?

Both are important, but post-session hand analysis typically yields greater improvement over time. Your session log may indicate profit or loss, but studying individual decisions reveals where you can truly enhance your skill.

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