Here’s Hoping: How to Generate Hope in the Face of Poker Variance

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Arved Klöhn Pokerlistings Author
  • Fact Checked by: PokerListings
  • Last updated on: February 18, 2025

I want to talk to you about something that has been all over social media since the WSOP.

I’m talking about hope. The question is: Is hope necessary or just an asset?

In the dictionary hope is defined as a desire whose accomplishment brings us considerable joy.

A relatively neutral description universal enough to apply to everyone, isn’t it?

Generating Hope in Poker

To generate hope you need a subtle balance of expectations and abilities.

To clarify, consider the following example: a player is about to play the WSOP Main Event, the biggest tournament of the year.

He busts on Day 2 without even cashing. What will give him enough hope to take part in next year’s Main Event and give the best he can? Or even to play another tournament the next day?

The answer is buried deep inside his own personality. The key? How the player will explain his failure and the expectations generated by this result.

If the player explains his failure by inevitable factors (“no matter how much work I put in, tournaments are just luck and it’s statistically almost impossible to win”), general factors (“it’s poker, it’s all about variance”) or factors that are impossible to control (“the dealer only gave me bad cards”), then he will feel powerless and discouraged.

If he explains his failure by temporary factors (“it happened this tournament but it will be different next time. I’ll keep playing the same way and it’ll all work out”), specific factors (“I played well but this is part of the game”) or factors that can be controlled (“I’m going to keep working and playing to get better, that’s what I can actually do”), then he’ll be able to generate enough hope to do the best he can for following tournaments (while still having a realistic view of variance).

Example: You open-raise to 3 big blinds with A K under the gun. One middle-position player calls, and the button calls. On a flop of A 9 4 , you make a continuation bet, get raised by the middle-position player, and decide to call. The turn is K , giving you top two pair. Although you feel you are well ahead of many hands, you lose to a set on the river. This sequence can easily discourage you from playing the next tournament, but focusing on the bigger picture of variance helps preserve hope.

I Take Variance Into Consideration

Motivation is also a big booster of hope, both as cause and consequence. It can be intrinsic motivation based on a specific objective.

For example: I want to become a good poker player because it makes me happy and allows me to live the life I want. I know it’s hard work but it’s worth it (“it’s a hard way to make an easy living”, as they say).

I play poker tournaments and I take variance into consideration but I’m ready to seize any opportunity that comes up and I have the tools to do so and succeed.

Motivation can also be extrinsic, ie. based on gratifications that are not directly linked to the goal: I want to be a good player because if it all goes well, I will be rich, I will be my own boss and I will be able to get all the girls.

Obviously, intrinsic motivation is much more effective, but even without it you can make up for it with external resources.

Some personality traits, like optimism or thirst for adrenaline, can help increase your hope as can previous successes.

In my case no other tournament makes me as hopeful as the WSOP Main Event and I’m sure it’s at least partly because of my past experiences there.

Example: You open-raise to 2.5 big blinds with K Q in late position. The big blind calls, and you flop a flush draw and two overcards. You decide to semi-bluff the flop and turn. Even if you miss and lose the pot, you can reflect on how the right moves were made, reinforcing hope and confidence in your process rather than focusing solely on one result.

As a Rule, Hope Never Weakens Anyone

I tend to think of hope as an ineluctable wave and when I feel it coming I tend to just let it flow as I know it’s generally a good sign. Luckily for me, I’m very easily motivated because I always think that things happen for a reason.

What matters is that I particularly love that sensation of feeling more alive.

However, it must be noted that people can get overwhelmed when they’re too hopeful and not make the best decisions, but it’s quite rare.

As a rule hope never weakens anyone. If anything it helps you focus more on your tasks because you’re conscious of your goal – as long as you know how to handle defeat.

As far as I’m concerned I’m a natural optimist. Each slap in the face is a lesson that I turn into positive energy to be even more eager at the next tournament.

Here’s hoping!

FAQ

What is hope in the context of poker?

Hope in poker is a mindset that focuses on possibilities for success and encourages you to continue playing your best game, even when outcomes are unpredictable. It involves balancing realistic expectations with optimism and motivation.

How can a player remain hopeful after busting early in a major event?

A player can reflect on whether the decisions made at the table were sound, acknowledge the role of variance, and focus on improvement. This mindset shift transforms disappointment into motivation for upcoming tournaments.

Why is intrinsic motivation more effective than extrinsic motivation for maintaining hope?

Intrinsic motivation is driven by personal fulfillment and passion, which tends to produce more consistent and enduring motivation. Extrinsic motivation can still fuel hope but may wane quickly without deeper personal goals.

Are there practical ways to sustain hope during downswings?

Yes, regular self-review of hands and emotions can keep negative thoughts in check. By assessing your decisions objectively and reminding yourself of long-term goals, you protect your mindset from the immediate impact of losses.

What impact does explaining failure have on hope?

The way you frame a failure greatly influences your emotional outlook. Viewing a setback as temporary or solvable encourages hope, while attributing it to uncontrollable or permanent factors can discourage continued effort.

How does structured mental preparation fit into generating hope?

Structured mental preparation helps players remain calm under pressure, quickly recover from setbacks, and analyze decisions more objectively. This disciplined approach supports a more optimistic yet realistic mindset.

Does hope ever create unrealistic expectations or lead to poor play?

Hope becomes problematic only if it clouds judgment and leads to denial of mistakes. Healthy hope encourages growth and resilience, so as long as it’s balanced with accurate self-assessment, it rarely leads to reckless decisions.

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