Does He Have It? How to Play a Scary-Board Shove

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Have you ever reached the river of a hand, with the run out producing a straight or flush, and then watched in agony as your opponent applied maximum pressure and shoved his chips into the middle?

Of course you have. But what do you do about it?

What goes through your mind? Does he or she have it? Is he or she bluffing?

A similar thing happened to me in a Full Tilt Poker Media Tournament recently.

There were only four prizes. There was no money involved. The winners would pick up electronic gadgetry.

How to Play Against a Scary-Board Shove

We were down to the final two tables when I got involved in this hand:

Blinds: 25/50

The action folds around to a player called Benjamen who raises to 150 from early position. I call in the small blind with sevens. We go heads up to the flop. Benjamen started the hand with 3,907 chips; I had 2,145.

Flop: 7 4 3

We both check.

Turn: 6

I bet 200, Benjamen raises to 625; I call.

River: 5

I check, Benjamen puts me all-in, and I fold.

My Thought Process

There wasn’t much of one. His shove immediately triggered anger. I spent so much time complaining that the clock was running down. I didn’t have time to go through a detailed thought process over his range.

The one and only thought was: “If I call, and he has it, I am out.” So I folded.

Bryan Paris: No Need to Bluff Catch

Bryan Paris is one of the smartest poker minds in the business. Playing as ‘bparis’ he has accumulated over $8.8m playing online poker tournaments and he has also won over $700,000 in live tournaments.

Here are his thoughts on the hand.

“I play the hand the same way. When we lead the turn we have plenty of straights and flushes in our range, so his raise essentially turns our set into a drawing hand.

“By the river he could be turning 5x into a bluff to push you off a chop, but the upside is limited now (only half pot), and we both have enough flushes in our respective ranges that there’s no need to bluff catch with this hand.”

How would this hand have played out had the flush not come in on the turn?

“If there’s no flush on the board I would call as it’s very unlikely for him to have 8x for a higher straight. In this latter case it would be difficult enough for him to have an eight that wants to raise the turn that I’m happy risking my stack for a chop.”

“However, the flush here changes the calculation considerably to the point where I think we can’t call river.”

Lessons Learned

I often forget to think about what my bet means to my opponent. When I led the turn and he raised, I didn’t consciously believe that my bet could have also signified that I had a straight or flush, making his raise much stronger.

I just bet, without any logical thought process backing it up. Bryan says he would call the river if the flush weren’t on board. His reasoning is sound. I don’t think I make the call because I am not thinking like Bryan is thinking.

My thought process is very one dimensional – if I call and he has it, then I’m out.

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Justin Oliver: Having No Chips Disqualifies You

In 2013 Justin Oliver won a World Series of Poker (WSOP) bracelet when he topped a field of 566 entrants to win the $2,500 No-Limit Hold’em 4-Handed Event.

In 2014 he returned to Vegas and came within a fly’s thong of winning a second bracelet, finishing runner-up to Pierre Milan in the $2,500 NLHE event out of a field of 1,165 entrants.

Here are Justin’s thoughts on the hand.

“The most important thing to think about, trumping everything else, is the spot in the tournament. If I call this river bet and am right, my stack is 2,300 instead of 1,500.”

“However if I call, and he has me beat, I’m out, and that is catastrophic. The number one goal and most important thing – don’t get disqualified from the tournament. Having no chips disqualifies you.”

But he could be bluffing?

“He could, and if he is, good for him; fold the hand and move on. You need to start looking at all the possible hands our opponent can have.”

“Would this type of villain ever check back a flush draw on the flop? Usually not, so flush is unlikely, although he will have it some non-zero percentage of the time. However, he can have an eight. You need to think of what possible 8x hands he could take this line with.”

“In these spots, in general, people need to look at what they are risking and what they can gain. So let’s just say it’s a cash game. In this one, we have to call around 1,500 to win around 700 or whatever it is.To make a call with those odds you had better be damn sure he’s very likely to be bluffing. If we are wrong once out of three trials, we lose 1,500, and the two trials we are right we only win 1,400 – so we need to be good like 80% of the time to show a nice profit margin here.”

Lessons Learned

I like Justin’s thought process on making the play that keeps you in a tournament. There is always another hand. However, just like Bryan, Justin would have also gone through a hand range thought process before making the play.

I am not sure I am as conscious as this, and could apply more intense focus on this in the future.

Justin also talks about the mathematics behind the decision. It’s something I never do when I play poker.

It’s a big leak. It leaves me guessing a lot of the time. That will not produce a win rate over the long term.

The most important lesson I took from these two fantastic poker players is never to assume that all scenarios have a perfect play.

When I first approached them for help, I was wondering if there was a particular way of thinking for these types of hands.

Instead I learned that I should be thinking the same way during every hand. Going through a process of hand-range analysis after taking into consideration my opponent’s reaction to my action, his action and his previous action up to the point of play.

That’s the view of Bryan and Justin. What’s yours?

Related Reading:

How Thinking in Ranges Dramatically Improves Your Poker Game

FAQ

What is a scary-board shove?

A scary-board shove occurs when an opponent goes all-in on a board with potential straights, flushes, or other strong combinations, putting maximum pressure on you to make a tough call or fold.

When should I be more inclined to fold against a scary-board shove?

You should be more inclined to fold when your tournament life is at stake, you cannot beat enough combinations of hands in your opponent’s range, or when ICM considerations significantly increase the cost of a wrong decision.

How do I analyze an opponent’s range in these situations?

Breaking down the possible hands that your opponent could hold based on their pre-flop tendencies, betting lines, and typical post-flop behavior is crucial. In scary-board scenarios, look for clues in their bet sizing, timing, and whether they tend to slow play or check-raise draws.

What if I suspect my opponent is bluffing on a coordinated board?

Even if you suspect a bluff, you need to consider pot odds, your opponent’s likelihood of running a big bluff at that point in the tournament, and how losing your stack might affect your chances going forward. Combining logical analysis with game flow reads is key.

How do I incorporate ICM into calling big shoves?

ICM requires you to weigh the value of your current chips versus the overall prize structure. A call that would be marginally profitable in a cash game might be a fold under ICM pressure, especially near the money bubble or final tables.

Why should I balance my range on scary boards?

By balancing your range, you prevent opponents from exploiting predictable lines of play. If they know you only bet strong hands on wet boards, they will fold too often. If they know you bluff too frequently, they will call you down. A balanced approach keeps your strategy profitable and difficult to read.

How can I improve my decision-making in these spots?

Regular hand reviews, studying advanced concepts like range construction, and working with tools that analyze all-in outcomes can help. Training with situational quizzes or running through actual tournament hand histories with more experienced players sharpens your ability to make optimal calls and folds.

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