How to Play Draws Correctly in Poker Using Implied Odds

Hitting a big draw and stacking someone is one of the most satisfying parts of poker. The problem most people have playing draws correctly, though, is overvaluing their implied odds.
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Arved Klöhn Pokerlistings Author
  • Fact Checked by: PokerListings
  • Last updated on: January 14, 2025

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In Hold’em you’re constantly playing draws and you have to be understand both types of odds – immediate odds and implied odds – if you want to play a draw effectively.

What Are Implied Odds in Poker?

Your immediate odds in a poker hand are easy to calculate. If you’re getting better than 3.5-1 for your immediate odds (meaning it’ll cost you $1 to call into a pot of $3.50, for example) it’s probably safe to call any bet with almost anything. When you’re not getting those required odds, things get trickier. You have to work with implied odds, and unfortunately implied odds are not quite so easy to calculate.

Implied odds are:

  • The odds you’re getting right now along with the implied betting of later rounds

So if you call a $10 bet on the turn in a $30 pot, your total odds are your immediate odds of 3-1 plus the implied odds of the river betting round. The tricky part about implied odds is you can never know exactly how the betting will go on the river. You could make your draw and then go for a sneaky check-raise and have it go check-check. Or you can make your draw and then make a large bet hoping to get paid off and have your villain fold.

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How to Estimate Implied Odds in Poker

To more accurately estimate your implied odds there are many things you should take into consideration:

  • Who is my opponent?
  • Are they a multi-tabling TAG (tight-aggressive player)?
  • Do they do some solid-thinking?
  • Are they a massive calling station?

You must also take into consideration hands you have seen him play on the river before. You may find even solid-ish players can call large bets on scary rivers because they’re afraid of being bluffed out of the pot. You may also find players that become as tight as a clam on the river when a scare card comes. Either way, to effectively draw you must know how your opponent will react when you hit your draw as well as when you miss your draw.

If you know how your opponent reacts on the river you will be able to profit from your draws much more. If you know your opponent is willing to call large river bets than you are probably safe calling that turn bet despite only being offered 1.5-1 or 2-1 immediate odds. If your opponent is the type to tighten up once that scare card comes, than you are probably better off mucking the draw and perhaps trying to bluff him in a later hand where you have just been calling and an obvious draw is completed on the river.

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More Hidden = Easier to Get Paid

A good general rule of thumb for estimating your implied odds is the more hidden the draw, the easier it is to get paid off. If you check-call two streets, the flush card comes and you donk-bet large or check-raise, it’s usually fairly obvious to your opponent what you have. If, however, you have straight and flush draws and your flush misses but your straight draw hits, your hand is almost completely disguised. A lot of the time your opponent will think you’re bluffing a missed flush draw.

A lot of opponents don’t really put in the time to think about their implied odds. They are, of course, aware of the concept of implied odds, but they just don’t put in the required thought when they’re in the heat of the battle. They think to themselves, “Oh if I hit my gutshot I will have the nuts and I will rake in a monster.” In reality, it’s a limped pot and the only action is a bet from late position.

This is important: To play a gutshot you must have a strong chance at winning a stack to make a call profitable. A simple bet from late position does not mean a player has a hand that can call big bets. A player from late position could be betting any number of hands – most of which would not be calling any sort of bigger bets on later streets.

Example:
Imagine you limp in from the cutoff with 7 8 and the button checks. The flop comes 9 6 2 , giving you an open-ended straight draw. The button bets a small amount, say half-pot. You might be tempted to call because you have eight outs to complete your straight.

But if you’ve noticed the button rarely calls big bets unless they have top pair or better, you may not get paid off enough if your straight hits on the turn. Knowing your opponent’s tendencies is what tells you whether your implied odds justify chasing this draw or not.

Put Your Opponent on a Range

To play hands like this effectively you must put your opponent on a range. If his range consists of mostly large hands, then you know he’ll be more likely to call large bets on later streets. If, however, his range consists of a number of one-pair hands you must know a simple gutshot or a crappy open-ender or low-flush draw is probably not worth chasing.

Playing draws well is one of the most important aspects of poker. As they say, the money you save in poker is money you win. The more money you save not chasing draws that have little chance of being paid off, the more money you will make in the long run. Just like everything else in poker, you must take everything into consideration before making a decision to continue in a hand.

How to Calculate Reverse Implied Odds

When you’re facing a bet on the flop, calling obviously doesn’t mean the end of the hand. There are still two more critical streets to play. If you have a marginal hand that wants to see a showdown (aka has “Showdown Value“), the “reverse implied odds” of these future streets can end up costing you a lot of money. After you call the flop bet, the turn and river are yet to be played and your opponent may choose to bet one or both of those streets. Those future streets can be estimated using implied odds and reverse implied odds.

When you have a drawing hand you benefit from the later streets of betting. You may not be getting the immediate pot odds to make your call worthwhile, but because of the implied odds of the two remaining streets, you can make that unprofitable call profitable. Reverse implied odds work in the opposite way. Say you have a good but not great hand, with little hope of improving, and you’re up against an opponent who has a hand that’s either already better than yours or likely to be better than yours by the river. Those implied rounds of betting can end up costing you a good deal of money.

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Reverse Implied Odds Hurt You with Dominated Hands

As much as implied odds help you with suited connectors and small pocket pairs, reverse implied odds hurt you just as much with potentially dominated hands. When you hit the flop with your dominated hand, it may look good to you. There is a chance you have the best hand now, but it might end up costing you more than you’d hoped to find out.

Let’s take a look at an example.

$1/$2 game poker online, six-max; $200 effective stacks. An aggressive TAG raises from the button to $8 and you make the call in the BB with K J . The flop comes 3 K 4 . You check and he bets $13. You call. Now, you have top pair with a good kicker. Your hand very well could be best now and if your opponent was all-in for the $13, it would be the easiest call you ever make. But the hand isn’t over.

The turn comes 5 . Your opponent bets $30 and you decide to call. You figure if your hand was best on the flop, nothing has changed, so you call again. The river comes 5 . Your opponent bets $55 and you decide to call. You figure you’re too pot-committed and maybe your opponent is bluffing, so you talk yourself into calling again. He tables A K and is shipped the $197 pot.

As you can see, your dominated hand ran into reverse implied odds. Unfortunately for you there were more streets than just the flop and your savvy opponent exercised his right to bet every single one of them. Because your opponent is in position he may choose to shut down on the later streets when he feels he is beat. So when you’re right you end up winning a small pot, and when you’re wrong you lose a substantially bigger one.

Another example:
Consider a similar spot. You have Q J on the button, and you call a raise from a late-position opponent. The flop comes J 9 4 . You have top pair with a decent kicker, but notice your opponent’s continuation bet is larger than usual. You suspect they might have a stronger jack or an overpair. Calling here could lead to multiple big bets on later streets. If your read is correct, you risk bleeding chips on both the turn and river, which illustrates reverse implied odds when facing a potentially better hand.

Good But Not Great Hands on Dangerous Boards

Another problem you run into is when you have a hand that has little chance of improving and your opponent either already has you crushed or has a high likelihood of making a better hand than you by the river. An example is a weakish top pair on an extremely draw-y board.

Like so: $1/$2 game online, six-max. $400 effective stacks. You have A J in the big blind. A player from late position raises to $6 and you reraise to $20. He makes the call and the flop comes J 10 9 . You bet $30 and he raises to $65.

Now what do you do? Your hand may be best now but the board is very draw-y and if he is doing this as a semi-bluff, you may have to call off your entire stack to find out. Again, if he happened to be all-in you could call with impunity because it would mean you could see a showdown without having to invest any more money.

But it doesn’t work like that. You’re 200BB deep – if you call this bet, there may be another big bet following it up on the turn or river. So what can you do? Half of the deck is a scare card for you and there’s almost no safe way of continuing if you smooth-call. That leaves pushing all-in or folding. If you shove you’re never going to be called by worse, so you are better off just folding to the flop raise!

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Reverse Implied Odds and You

Looking at the two examples it should be obvious to you why getting into RIO situations is detrimental to your poker health. But they can’t be avoided so it’s best to figure out how to identify them and avoid getting wrapped up in large pots when they occur. Though it seems like any play you can make in a reverse implied odds situation sucks, usually the safest play is the one that sucks the least. Choosing the safer line and folding in bad reverse implied odds spots will save you more money than you make when you call and are right. Start looking for spots where your decent hand has a small chance of improving versus an opponent who either has a better hand or will have better by the river, and just avoid them.

Mastering Implied and Reverse Implied Odds

Most of the time, grasping implied and reverse implied odds comes down to evaluating potential future actions from your opponent. Even if your pot odds look favorable in the moment, an extra layer of thought about how the next streets might play out can save you from punting chips or missing valuable opportunities. Modern game theory concepts (GTO) stress the importance of balancing your range in these spots, so your opponents can’t easily read your decisions with draws.

Professionals often develop an intuitive feel for these situations. They consider not just the immediate cost of calling or betting, but also whether their hand’s strength or disguise potential justifies the investment. A well-disguised draw, combined with an opponent’s tendency to call big bets, translates into highly profitable implied odds. Conversely, a marginal hand in the face of aggression triggers reverse implied odds. The more likely you are to call multiple streets with a second-best holding, the more money it will cost you in the long run.

Integrating Opponent Profiling with Modern Strategies

One of the most effective ways to leverage implied and reverse implied odds is to profile your opponents in real time. By tracking their frequency of big river calls, you can identify prime targets for maximizing value when your draw hits. If a tight opponent rarely invests big on later streets without a premium holding, you know your implied odds are likely smaller with that player.

Professional players often integrate GTO principles into this profiling by balancing their own betting ranges to stay unpredictable. For instance, if you suspect an opponent will fold to large bets whenever a draw completes, you might size up your bets for maximum fold equity. On the other hand, if you expect them to call down too often, you can cleverly trap with disguised drawing hands. Whether you’re at low stakes or mid stakes, applying these adjustments builds a robust framework for profitable decision-making.

If you expand your arsenal of plays based on accurate reads, you can systematically adjust to each new table dynamic. In modern poker, success hinges on combining the raw math of odds with a nuanced understanding of your opponent’s tendencies.

FAQ

What are implied odds in poker?

Implied odds are a calculation of the potential future winnings you might gain if you hit your draw. Unlike immediate pot odds, which only measure your current call versus the current pot size, implied odds consider money you may win on later streets if your hand improves and your opponent continues to call your bets.

How do reverse implied odds affect a strong but vulnerable hand?

Reverse implied odds can work against you when your hand looks good on the surface but is often second-best or likely to get outdrawn by the river. You end up losing more money on future streets, especially if your opponent keeps betting and your hand barely improves.

Why is opponent profiling important when playing draws?

Profiling helps you gauge how likely your opponent is to call big bets on later streets, which directly impacts the profit you can make from implied odds. A calling station might be an excellent target for drawing hands, while a nitty player who shuts down easily offers lower implied value if you hit.

When should I prioritize hidden draws in my strategy?

You should prioritize hidden draws when you believe your opponent won’t suspect that your hand improved, allowing you to extract maximum value. For example, completing a less obvious straight draw after a missed flush can lure opponents into calling big bets, assuming you are bluffing.

Can GTO principles help with implied odds decisions?

GTO concepts can guide you in balancing your betting range and disguising your hands. By mixing in bluffs and strong holdings strategically, you become more difficult to read and increase your chances of getting paid off on well-timed draws, thus boosting your implied odds.

What is the best way to handle top pair in a deep-stacked situation when facing aggression?

Avoid auto-piloting calls, because top pair might be behind a better hand or vulnerable to being outdrawn. Weigh the likelihood of facing large bets on later streets and consider folding if future action looks costly in relation to the potential upside.

How do I apply implied odds more effectively in multiway pots?

In multiway pots, your implied odds may increase if multiple players continue in the hand. However, the risk of someone holding a better draw or made hand is also higher. Observe your opponents’ tendencies and the texture of the board to decide whether your potential payout justifies the increased risk.

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