Jonathan Little’s Math Essentials for Beginners

Equity & Expected Value (EV)

Poker math fundamentals begin with equity & EV. But before diving into it, we need to clear up some terminology:

• Equity: How often you will win the pot assuming that it checks to the showdown.
• Expected Value (EV): How much a decision is expected to win or lose in the long run.
• Equity Realization (EQR): How much of your actual equity you realize.

Jonathan explains an importance of knowing these like that:

“This is a concept that you should be aware of in-game, but there’s no need to calculate it in-game. You should be aware of situations where you will under-realize or over-realize your equity, which should help drive your overall strategy.”

How to Calculate Expected Value

The key formula:  Expected Value = % * win(amount you win) + % * lose(amount you lose)

Let’s say, on the turn your opponent goes all-in for $100 into a $200 pot. You know that you will win 30% of the time. The math will be:

EV = 0.3 * ($300) + 0.7 * (-$100) = $90 – $70 = +$20 to call

If you want to learn making EV calculations quickly during the game, you should regularly practice it outside poker sessions, as Jonathan says:

“By doing work like this away from the table, you are going to find that this becomes very intuitive at the table.”

What Is Equity Realization

The key formula: EQR = EV/Equity

If your equity realization is greater than 100%, this means that you will over-realize your equity (typically due to positional advantage or strength of your range.) If it’s less than 100%, which is often the case when you are out of position, this means that you will under-realize your equity.

Pot Odds

Pot Odds relate risk to reward by explaining the ratio between current size of the pot and cost of possible call.

Here are some of the most common pot odds you should know:

How To Calculate Pot Odds

The key formula: Pot Odds = Bet / (Bet + Pot)

Let’s say that you’re on the river with a medium strength hand with $80 in the pot. Your opponent bets $80. How often do you need to win after calling for the call to be profitable?

It can be calculated just like that:

Pot Odds = $80 / ($80 + $160) = 33.3%

How To Convert Outs To Odds And Calculate Your Equity

Knowing the way to convert your number of outs to a percent is vital to realize how often you will improve in the situation. Let’s check an example.

You have J♥️T♥️ on A♥️Q♥️4♦️J♠️ board. Pot is $200 and your opponent moves all-in for $200. He shows you A♦️Q♦️. So, how many outs do you have?

There are 14 outs:

• 9 hearts
• 3 additional Kings
• 2 Jacks

To calculate your equity, use the rule of 4 & 2:

• If you’re on the flop — multiply your outs by 4.
• If you’re on the turn — multiply your outs by 2.

14 outs x 2 = ~28%. You need 33.3%, so you should fold! If you had 20 outs, you would have 40% and it would be an easy call.

Stack To Pot Ratio (SPR)

The key formula: SPR = Stack / Pot

The stack to pot ratio helps you understand which bet sizes and strategies to use in many different situations.

You calculate SPR by dividing the effective stack by the total amount in the pot. For example, if stack is $80 and pot is $90, your math would be:

Stack to Pot Ratio = 180/90 = 2.0 SPR

If your SPR is less than 1 — perhaps you want to think about moving all-in.

if your SPR is more than 4 —you should rarely consider all-in as an option.

SPR fuels decision-making and strategy but it can also help you understand how much to bet on the turn to allow yourself to get it all-in by the river when you feel inclined.

Counting Hand Combinations

Finally, all players need to quickly learn how to count combinations — it is one of the most simple ways to understand an opponent’s range during play.

There are 16 combinations of every unpaired hand: A-K, 10-9, etc.:

• 12 offsuit combinations.
• 4  suited combinations. 

For example, there are 4 Aces and 4 Kings in a deck: 4×4 =16 — 12 offsuit combos and 4 suited. And there are 6 combinations of every pair!

What happens if you have a blocker in your hand?

• 4 Aces x 4 Kings = 16 combos of A-K (12 offsuit, 4 suited)
• 3 Aces x 4 Kings = 12 combos of A-K (9 offsuit, 3 suited)
• 6 combos of 9-9 reduces to 3 combos of 9-9 if you have 1 in your hand!

P.S. If you want to read more from coach Little, read PokerListings articles such as:

• Jonathan Little Wins Third PGT Title in 2024
• Three Important Things We’ve Learned From Jonathan Little’s Stream