Expected Value (EV) in Poker, Explained

The Math of Expected Value

If you and a friend were to bet on the outcome of a coin flip, and agree that you would be paid $5 for every time it came heads and you would pay him $5 every time it came tails, you would win half the time and he would win the other half of the time.

That would make the bet a neutral EV bet.

Let’s say, though, that your opponent decided:

• He would pay you $10 for every heads
• You would still only pay him $5 for every tails

The wager now becomes a +EV bet.

You’ll still win 50% of all of the flips over the long term. But when you win you’ll be paid double what you pay him when you lose.

So: Your expected value on every flip is now $2.50.

Let’s look at the math. One outcome of the flip is it comes tails (-$5); the other outcome is heads (+$10).

So 50% of the time you’ll win $10 and the other 50% of the time you’ll lose $5.

• $10 (.5) – $5 (.5) = +$2.5

In poker this means you only want to make bets that show a positive expectation and avoid ones with a negative expectation. This is where your money comes from – making bets that only show a positive expectation.

One More Example:

You open-raise to 2.5 big blinds with K Q in late position. A player on the button 3-bets, and you decide to call. The flop comes J 7 2 . You hold two overcards and a flush draw, giving you a high-equity situation if you face a continuation bet. Evaluating the pot odds and the chance of hitting your flush or a king or queen can turn this call into a profitable +EV decision if your implied odds are favorable.

If You Make +EV Decisions, You Win Long Term

Think of poker as a continual, lifelong game. Your goal in this game is to make money in the long term. You may have losing days, weeks or even months, but as long as you make +EV decisions you will win in the long run.

You are “beating poker.” Most beginners tend to look at one hand or one session and draw ridiculous conclusions from it. It’s a mistake to react this way.

Let’s say for example that you raise pre-flop on the button with K K and the new player calls from the big blind. The board comes K J 2 ; your opponent pushes all-in and you call.

He turns over the A 10 . The turn comes 4 and the river Q . He starts gloating about how well he played the hand.

He feels that since he won the hand, his move was correct. Sometimes a novice player with KK will even question their call afterward just because they lost.

What you should do is look at your play and ask yourself whether it’s profitable in the long run. That is, put whatever the actual outcome was out of your mind and look at it objectively.

In this case it’s easy. You flopped top set, which is the stone-cold nuts on that board. Should you call his all-in? Absolutely – your call shows a positive expectation over the long term.

We always want make bets that show a positive expectation.

Always Look for the +EV Move!

What we should always try to do as poker players is look for the best move (the move with the highest expectation) at any given time. If you always make the best possible move, you’ll always make money in the long term.

There will of course be times when you make the best move and still lose; that is inevitable, since poker is a game that is influenced by luck. Bad plays are going to get rewarded, but that doesn’t all of a sudden make their moves good.

Put the short term completely out of your mind and focus only on making the best decision at any given time. Good results are destined to follow.

Multi-Street EV Analysis

When you face a turn or river bet, the EV of your action can depend on earlier decisions and the way future bets may unfold. If the flop sets up a situation where you can semi-bluff with a high-equity draw, the turn bet might gain even more EV if it forces opponents to fold better hands. Conversely, chasing a draw with insufficient pot odds on the turn could turn a previously profitable flop call into a losing sequence of plays. Evaluating EV across all streets keeps you focused on the long-term profitability of each decision.

Combining Solver Insights with Practical Adjustments

Modern poker tools let you simulate thousands of scenarios, from shorthanded situations on the flop to full-ring confrontations at the river. EV calculations within solvers incorporate ranges, pot odds, fold equity, and potential runouts. Players who rely solely on solver outputs risk ignoring human elements like tilt or bet-sizing tells, though. Blending these solver insights with your own observations at the table allows you to exploit particular opponents while still maintaining a solid theoretical baseline.