Chill, Guys! Online Poker Probably Isn’t Rigged — Jonathan Little Says

Why People Think Online Poker Is Rigged

People tend to connect their results to surrounding events following the “post hoc” fallacy. If you’re not familiar with it, the Latin phrase “post hoc, ergo propter hoc” meaning “after this, therefore because of this” is quite a good embodiment of this problem, especially for recreational players.

As Jonathan explains it in his thread:

“If you’ve played poker long enough, you’ve likely experienced stretches of bad luck, especially online, where the fast pace can amplify the frustration of back-to-back bad beats. While downswings are common and pros understand their inevitability, recreational players may doubt the fairness of the game.

Many players believe poker sites rig games, favor certain players, or maximize rake intentionally.”

However, people’s biases don’t exclude risks associated with playing poker online. Jonathan’s thoughts for this matter are:

“There is no proof that major online poker sites are rigged, but there are still risks involved.  For example, GGPoker recently experienced a security leak that allowed a player to access winning percentages during active hands, giving them an unfair advantage.

Another concern is the use of real-time assistance (RTA) tools, which help players make optimal decisions without fully understanding the strategies. Additionally, poker bots that automate the use of RTA tools have been found on several sites, particularly unlicensed ones, making the game much harder for real players and costing millions over time.”

How Licensed Poker Rooms Try to Make Online Poker Fair

Major poker rooms aren’t interested in allowing cheaters to prosper, so they try to prevent different forms of foul play on their sites. One of the basic moves to do so is using licensed Random Number Generator software, as GGPoker, PokerStars, CoinPoker and other rooms do, to make dealing of cards randomized without a chance to alter this process. Moreover, this software is usually acquired from a third party and can’t be altered even by the rooms’ developers.

Major rooms also work under regulators that try to minimize some risks of online poker for players, as Jonathan describes it:

“Major poker sites are licensed by reputable gaming authorities. These regulators enforce strict compliance with laws and conduct regular gaming fairness audits to ensure operators provide a fair playing environment.”

Finally, major poker rooms not only carefully monitor their own software and players actions, but also regularly engage third-party independent auditors to check their software.

So, as Jonathan concludes in his thread:

“While online poker isn’t rigged, there are risks that can be minimized by playing on licensed, secure sites. It’s also important to remember that isolated incidents of cheating don’t mean the game is rigged or that operators are directly responsible for such behavior.”

Why You Shouldn’t Trust Unregulated Poker Sites

Even if unregulated online poker operators offer you a nice field, low rake and sweet promotions, all of that can have its shady sides where the biggest and darkest is lack of proper oversight.

That’s why Little advises players to avoid unlicensed sites no matter how profitable their offers look:

“Operators without licenses often lack proper oversight. These sites may engage in unethical practices, making it crucial for players to stick to regulated platforms. This is why I try to deter people from playing on unregulated/unlicenced sites, as it could be happening (even though it almost certainly isn’t).”

How to Make Sure Online Poker Isn’t Rigged

Even if Little’s words aren’t enough for you to dismiss the probability of online poker being rigged, you can prove it relatively easily. According to Little, all you need is to play a lot and then analyze your volume:

“If you’ve played hundreds of thousands of hands, you can determine if a poker site is fair by reviewing your hand history with tracking software like Hold’em Manager or PokerTracker. Analyze specific scenarios, such as coin flips or flush draws, to see if outcomes align with expected probabilities.

Many have tried proving online poker is rigged this way but have failed. Avoid basing conclusions on small samples, as variance plays a significant role in poker outcomes.  Learn about variance and standard deviation before making claims about rigged software.”

For those who continue to feel that online poker is rigged no matter how much hard evidence there is against it, Jonathan recommends improving their games to finally accept reality:

“In general, online poker is much tougher than live poker, which is why many winning live players struggle online. Many players beat all formats and stakes by playing better and putting in the volume.

If you’re losing, it’s likely because you’re not playing well enough and focus too much on bad beats rather than areas where you could improve. Online poker is challenging and getting tougher, and you won’t win long-term by relying on luck or street poker to “outplay” others.”